EUROSTAT: Ageing Characterises the Demographic Perspectives of the European Societies
Population projections are what-if scenarios that aim to provide information about the likely future size and structure of the population.
Eurostat’s population projections convergence scenario is one of several possible population change scenarios based on assumptions for fertility,mortality and migration. In particular, the assumptions have been developed in a conceptual framework of convergence of demographic values as a result of decreasing socio-economic and cultural differences between the Member States of the European Union, Norway and Switzerland.
The current scenario is primarily used in the context of the European Commission’s analysis of the impact of ageing populations on public spending.
The 2008-based national population projections EUROPOP2008 convergence scenario show the population of the EU27 rising gradually from 495.4 million in 2008, reaching 520.7 million in 2035 and thereafter gradually declining to reach 505.7 million on 1st January 2060.
The EU27 population is projected to become older with the median age projected to rise from 40.4 years in 2008 to 47.9 years in 2060.
The share of people aged 65 years or over in the total population is projected to increase from 17.1% to 30.0% and the number is projected to rise from 84.6 million in 2008 to 151.5 million in 2060. Similarly, the number of people aged 80 years or over is projected to almost triple from 21.8 million in 2008 to 61.4 million in 2060.
The young age dependency ratio for the EU27 population is projected to rise moderately to 25.0% in 2060, while the old age dependency ratio is expected to increase substantially from its current levels of 25.4% to 53.5% in 2060.
Whereas in 2008 in the EU27 there are 4 persons of working age (15-64 years old) for every person aged 65 years or over; in 2060 the ratio is expected to be 2 to 1.
Document ID: EUROSTAT Statistics in Focus, 78/2008 (May 2008).